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I haven’t watched the Academy Awards since 2002. I don’t even remember what won Best Picture that year. I think that probably gives you some idea of my general level of excitement when it comes to awards shows. I honestly don’t care. Why? Well, I don’t think the Academy throws Oscars at the right people or films quite often enough. Sometimes they do, but other times “Crash” friggin’ beats out “Brokeback Mountain.” For that reason alone, I can’t imagine why I’d ever bother watching another four painfully long hours of bad jokes, clumsy dance numbers and famous people dressed like they’re in a Lady Gaga video. Even worse, all the farting around leeches time away from the winners’ thank you speeches, truncating them to the point of meaninglessness. This is their big moment and they’ve got just a few seconds to acknowledge everyone who ever inspired them before it’s back to the of-the-moment pop culture references from our preening host. Lame.

Some folks feel a need to see every movie that’s nominated for an Academy Award before they can make a decision as to who the recipient should be. I’m not one of those people. If you look at the nominees for Best Actress, you’ll see gals in five movies I passed on in 2009. And I still ain’t gonna bother with any of them. That said, I think Zoe Saldana was snubbed in this category for her performance as Neytiri in “Avatar?”

With the Best Picture category expanded to 10 films instead of the usual five, we’re getting quite a batch of good-but-not great also-rans like “District 9,” a movie that people really seem to want to like more than I do. “Up” is pointlessly in the Best Picture category when it’s also up for Best Animated Feature. Nobody saw “A Serious Man” but my girlfriend and me — on our first date! — so that’s undeservedly on the list. “The Blind Side?” Really? There’s a formulaic football movie every year, folks. Opening up this list to 10 nominees just overcrowds the flicks that should be on the list, like “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglorious Basterds” and “Avatar.” “Up in the Air” is not the Best Picture of the year, but it’s one of those movies that keeps getting nominated because it has the look and feel of an awards picture. But it’s just there for the sake of rounding out the list. So’s “Precious.”

Note that “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglorious Basterds” and “Avatar” are all combat films. “The Hurt Locker” is probably the best of the three. It won’t win because it flew under the radar, since people can’t sit through an Iraq war film when they’re too busy trying to ignore the actual Iraq war. “Inglorious Basterds” is fun, but bloated and overindulgent. Tarantino’s back in form with his biggest hit since “Pulp.” And yet, it’s still an odd marriage of a prestige picture and an exploitation movie, something that was fresh in ‘95. “Avatar” is taking home Best Picture. The movie that sunk “Titanic” at the box office has to have done something right. People will bemoan its simple, straightforward narrative until they’re blue in the face. Let ‘em. It’ll make ‘em look like Na’vi.

For Best Director, I’d like to see Kathryn Bigelow take this one home for “The Hurt Locker” and for having survived a marriage to James Cameron and for also being the director of “Point Break.” It’s pretty terrific that a woman directed the best action movie of the year. There simply aren’t enough female directors in this town. Bigelow’s win would shatter that glass ceiling and show up all imbecilic dicktards like Michael Bay. “The Hurt Locker” is an action movie. I don’t know what the hell “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” is supposed to be.

Best Actor will go to Jeff Bridges. He’s perfect in “Crazy Heart.” Jeremy Renner’s pretty great in “The Hurt Locker,” but I don’t smell an upset here.

Best Supporting Actor will go to Christoph Waltz for “Inglorious Basterds.” I’d make a case that he should be up for Best Actor, given that he’s basically the main character in the film and has the most screentime. However, then he’d be pitted against Bridges, and I’d rather they both take home a statue.

Best Original Screenplay will go to either Mark Boal for “The Hurt Locker” or Quentin Tarantino for “Inglorious Basterds.” You couldn’t have two more mutually exclusive scripts, and that makes things interesting.

Best Documentary ought to go to “The Cove.” I saw a bunch of docs last year, but only two are on this list. The other film, “Food, Inc.,” is just another boring activist documentary. “The Cove” is raw and ugly and visceral, a look into the dolphin slaughter that goes on in Japan. It’s difficult to watch at times, yes. You won’t come away from another movie, though, that’s quite as gripping. This is an activist documentary. “Capitalism: A Love Story” got snubbed. I think the Academy’s done with Michael Moore. He’d give a helluva speech at the podium, though.

I don’t really care about the other categories or haven’t seen enough films in them to offer any useful commentary.

If anything, the 82nd Academy Awards should have more viewers than the little-watched ceremonies of the past few years. “Avatar” should liven things up a bit, and there could be some interesting upsets…if you’re interested in that sort of thing. Or you could do what I do: wait until the show’s over, log on to the Internet and see all the big moments that have been extracted from the punishing length of the full broadcast.

-Brad Lohan

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